VLab Forum Members,
For those who might be interested in previewing the slides for
tomorrow's VLab Forum, please see the "Slides" section
below. And don't forget that the June 2024 VLab Forum features a
presentation titled "Extracting Ensemble Information in Real
Time to Improve Forecasts of Severe Convection". The talk is
being given by Brian Ancell who is a professor in the Atmospheric
Science Group of the Department of Geosciences at Texas Tech
University located in Lubbock, Texas. We hope you can attend.
To participate in the forum, please register
for the webinar.
Abstract:
Ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) is a technique that extracts
relevant information from ensembles that can subsequently be used in
a variety of ways to improve forecasts in real time. ESA identifies
atmospheric flow features at and prior to severe events that are
linked to high-impact forecast aspects of convection such as high
winds, heavy precipitation, hail size, and rotation (known as
response functions). Since ESA highlights how upstream features,
such as jet stream wind maxima/minima or low-level moisture
gradients, determine the evolution of convection in the coming
hours/days, it can add value to the forecasting process through
forecaster awareness. It can also improve forecasts by adjusting the
ensemble based on weighting individual members more if they are more
skillful in sensitive areas – a technique known as ensemble
subsetting. This presentation will show how ESA has been developed
toward an operational tool in recent years from Warn-on-Forecast
timescales to forecast horizons of days, the obstacles overcome and
the knowledge gained while doing so, and the current status of
operational ESA.
Agenda:
You can find the agenda for the Forum at the following link:
Slides:
You can find a link to the slides on the VLab Forum
page in the "View It" section of the Forum Briefings table.
Add to Your Calendar:
To add this VLab Forum meeting to
your calendar, please click on the following button.
