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Climatological Distribution WSUP Q

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Edward Townsend, modified 1 Year ago.

Climatological Distribution WSUP Q

Youngling Posts: 4 Join Date: 8/18/13 Recent Posts

Howdy, 

I think this is a great feature. It looks like the NBM/NDFD/URMA climo is aiming to more or less accomplish the same thing as the EPS ENS M-Climate (which uses a set of re-forecasts over the last 20 years as the basis for its climatology), albeit a smaller compilation of data/forecasts that is valid over the currently displayed month spanning the available period of record, right?

Do you think we will be able to see a pseudo-EFI calculation or display that uses the URMA climo distribution (preferred over the other two climo distributions owing to its greater PoR)?

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Dana Strom, modified 1 Year ago.

RE: Climatological Distribution WSUP Q

Youngling Posts: 87 Join Date: 12/8/14 Recent Posts
Hi Ed,

Thanks for your kind words! We're happy to know that you are liking the Climatology Distribution feature. The goal of this feature, as you note, is to get a feel for how extreme the forecast you're seeing is in the context of previous forecasts (or analysis). The climatological maps allow for the spatial context of how to forecast fits into the climatology. 

After taking a look at EFI, I think we can certainly provide some sort of EFI calculation or display. It could be useful in determining where to focus attention and be a nice complementary product to the Climatology Distribution functionality. 

We'll put it on the suggestion list and take a deeper look.

Thank you for the suggestion!
Dana

On Fri, Dec 15, 2023 at 12:31 PM Edward Townsend <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

Howdy, 

I think this is a great feature. It looks like the NBM/NDFD/URMA climo is aiming to more or less accomplish the same thing as the EPS ENS M-Climate (which uses a set of re-forecasts over the last 20 years as the basis for its climatology), albeit a smaller compilation of data/forecasts that is valid over the currently displayed month spanning the available period of record, right?

Do you think we will be able to see a pseudo-EFI calculation or display that uses the URMA climo distribution (preferred over the other two climo distributions owing to its greater PoR)?


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Edward Townsend Whole Story Uncertainty & Probabilities Viewer Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/wsup/forums/-/message_boards/view_message/34067074VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


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Dana Strom
Visualization Task Lead
Digital Forecast Services Division
Meteorological Development Lab
NOAA/National Weather Service

301-427-9451