Change in NBM percentiles and probabilities with time

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Paul Wolyn, modified 4 Years ago.

Change in NBM percentiles and probabilities with time

Youngling Posts: 1 Join Date: 9/24/12 Recent Posts

I like your D(prog)/Dt addition to the point viewer. Is it easy to add something similar for percentiles and probabilities? It would be helpful to display the trends in the probabilities and percentiles with time for a specific forecast time. These plots would give and indication of how the NBM is trending in values as well as in the spread.

In one graph, the lines plotted would be the values associated with the percentiles. The x axis would be the time of the forecast (and not the valid time) and the y axis would be the value. Another plot would have as the lines the percentages of meeting or exceeding a value.

The hope is this can be done in GFE using BOIVerify once the grids are in GFE. This allows more flexibility for specific locations. These plots in WSUP would be beneficial as a good first look into the evolution of the forecast. I can see instances where these plots may be good enough as long as there are enough points in a forecast area.

I had a similar request for the 1-D viewer, but they said it would take significant rewriting of the code.

Thanks,

Paul Wolyn

SOO Pueblo, CO

Dana Strom, modified 4 Years ago.

RE: Change in NBM percentiles and probabilities with time

Youngling Posts: 87 Join Date: 12/8/14 Recent Posts

Hi Paul,

It's in the works! We will be adding select percentiles (5,10,25,50,75,90,95) for QPF06, MaxT, and MinT into our point vis in the next release. We are already extracting and storing the data in our database, and we just need to add them into the plots. We will be providing dprog/dt for this as well.

Thanks for the feedback!

Dana

On Thu, Oct 29, 2020 at 1:12 PM Paul Wolyn <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

I like your D(prog)/Dt addition to the point viewer. Is it easy to add something similar for percentiles and probabilities? It would be helpful to display the trends in the probabilities and percentiles with time for a specific forecast time. These plots would give and indication of how the NBM is trending in values as well as in the spread.

In one graph, the lines plotted would be the values associated with the percentiles. The x axis would be the time of the forecast (and not the valid time) and the y axis would be the value. Another plot would have as the lines the percentages of meeting or exceeding a value.

The hope is this can be done in GFE using BOIVerify once the grids are in GFE. This allows more flexibility for specific locations. These plots in WSUP would be beneficial as a good first look into the evolution of the forecast. I can see instances where these plots may be good enough as long as there are enough points in a forecast area.

I had a similar request for the 1-D viewer, but they said it would take significant rewriting of the code.

Thanks,

Paul Wolyn

SOO Pueblo, CO

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Paul Wolyn Whole Story Uncertainty & Probabilities Viewer Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/wsup/forums/-/message_boards/view_message/12358107 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

Dana Strom

Visualization Task Lead

Digital Forecast Services Division

Meteorological Development Lab
NOAA/National Weather Service

301-427-9451