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ESRL Precipitation Forecast Based on NCEP GEFS Reforecasts, Ver2

Below is an email thread shared with my fellow NWS SRHQ folks concerning a heavy rainfall event being forecast in the Week 2 time frame over OK/AR/TX--to commence about 6-7 days from today.  The below makes use of ESRL's GEFS Reforecast information decoded and encoded to be made available in a GIS interface--ArcGIS Online.

 

Details on the experimental data are at this link:  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/analogs/index.html

 

I received feedback from three folks this thread was sent to yesterday with suggestions; thank you for sending the comments.  

 
I've also added in several of the visitors we had in our SRH library today, as I believe this can be considered related to that discussion about conveying our information. 
 
Two of the comments were for viewing the data in units of Inches vs mm.  This can, and has been done (inserted two 2 steps (Add Field, Calculate Field), in today's version, which has been updated to depict output from last night's ESRL GEFS run. The link remains: http://arcg.is/1uyLn8
 
Another comment was expressing a preference for just showing the hotspot view, and not the gridpoints and their labels.  That's a personal preference, but I have made the hotspot view the default ON, and gridpoints default off.
 
A third request came in to make a swipe of the May 11th forecast vs the May 12th, so that one might be able to ascertain the delta in the two runs to see if there is spatial continuity, generally, in the location of heaviest amounts, despite the date range moving forward one day. This has been done in the below link, though the hotspot color range is a function of the data range, so color match may not be identical.  Suffice it to say, Southeast OK is in the bullseye in each run.  As you use the Swipe, you can stop and click on the hotspot to reveal the value of the underlying data comparing the two days.
 
In this swipe view, I inserted a few geographic bookmarks as tabs, to pan the map to AR, OK, etc.  http://arcg.is/2qbigLi
 
Lastly, once your Story has tabs, you can add an "&autoplay" to the end of the URL, and the map will advance through the tabs (one tab per unit time) by itself (good for kiosk/SA used). In this view, the author could have inserted more text,on the left, to explicitly convey impact talking points about the view being shown.  http://arcg.is/2pGPb6G
 
Just sharing some possibilities afforded to all users with accounts in ArcGIS Online.
 
Have a great weekend.
 
To add in my two cents, and as a follow-up to today's (May 11) geospatial presentation/discussion (I apologize for not scheduling more time to discuss/QandA more),
I've gone ahead and tapped the same base GEFS ESRL analog data seen via images from ESRL's webpage.
 
I've made crude views from the exported gridded data points showing JUST the 4inch+ (100mm) and greater areas highlighted on the ESRL image (red areas).  Both the gridpoint layer, and a hotspot representation of the layer are shown in this map, but I've only left the hotspot layer checked on by default (a quiz for you to navigate this map and turn on the grid points layer?) as it shows better.  Note, as well, how the hotspot colors change as a function of zoom level, to help highlight areas.  One can see how well the ESRL Week 2 data lines up with some of the CPC Days 3-7 and 8-14 contoured areas highlighting upcoming Heavy Rain.

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