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HRRR Evaluation Begins

Today marks the day beginning a 30-day evaluation period of the latest experimental version of the HRRR and RAP.   See evaluation letter linked here.

One method of evaluating the parallel HRRR runs is to use the static images created in the MAG and MAGEVAL sites here:

 

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrrr/15/hrrr_cent-us_01500_sim_radar_comp.gif

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrrr/15/hrrr_cent-us_01500_sim_radar_comp.gif

 

Using that method, at the links above, I compared ONE time step (forecast hour 15), from one model run (7/14 15UTC), and saved the graphics from that run as attached images, which can be compared here and here (likely best to toggle between each in browser tabs).

The valid time for the saved graphics is 1am CDT.  In the images one can see subtle differences in the output.  In the latter image, the HRRRx looks to be a bit "hotter" with the convection that MAY may it to our DFW doorstep at 3am (08UTC) tnite. 

 

HRRRx

 


HRRR

 

 

Categories:

NOAA Strategic Goals: Weather-Ready Nation NWS Strategic Objectives: Improve weather decision services Integrated environmental forecast services for healthy communities/systems
JS
Jack Settelmaier
7/14/16 6:12 PM , 1670 Views
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3 Comments

JS
Jack Settelmaier 8 Years Ago - Edited
A more recent HRRRx run, by 4 hours, maintains the chance of now a more linear feature making it to the metroplex after midnight, though odds are not great. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrrr/19/hrrr_cent-us_01100_sim_radar_comp.gif
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Gregory Patrick 8 Years Ago
From Pete Wolf, SOO at JAX: The HRRRx seems to consistently outperform the NAMRR in weak dynamic events (across the South this time of year), and slightly outperform NAMRR on stronger dynamic patterns (across the North this time of year). In particular, I am rather impressed at HRRRx compared to current operational HRRR for weak-flow t-storm events in our area...seems much improved given the biases that appear to exist with operational HRRR. Will be interested to see if this is consistent week to week, or if I just happened to pick a good week to examine this. If consistent, will be very beneficial to have the HRRRx when it comes to developing consistent enhanced near-/short-term grids.
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JS
Jack Settelmaier 8 Years Ago
I've added a link here to the Observed Reflectivity over North Texas for this case. Comparing it, to the HRRR and HRRRx forecasts, I'd lean toward stating the operational HRRR looks more like the observed. Comments? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/srh/stsd/Jack/VLAB/ObsRadarJul15_2016_06Z.png
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